Improving sustainability of urban drainage systems for climate change adaptation using best management practices: a case study of Tehran,Iran     

Negin Binesh  Amin Sarang  Wolfgang Rauch 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(4):381-404

Although the effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs) in reducing urban flooding is widely recognized, the improved sustainability achieved by implementing BMPs in upstream suburban areas, reducing downstream urban floods, is still debated. This study introduces a new definition of urban drainage system (UDS) sustainability, focusing on BMP usage to enhance system performance after adaptation to climate change. Three types of hydraulic reliability index (HRI) plus robustness and improvability indices were used to quantify the potential enhanced sustainability of the system in a changing climate, together with a climate change adaptability index (CCAI). The sustainability of UDS for the safe conveyance of storm-water runoff was investigated under different land-use scenarios: No BMP, BMP in urban areas, and BMP inside and upstream of urban areas, considering climate change impacts. Rainfall–runoff simulation alongside drainage network modelling was conducted using a storm-water management model (US EPA SWMM) to determine the inundation areas for both base-line and future climatic conditions. A new method for disaggregating daily rainfall to hourly, proposed to provide a finer resolution of input rainfall to SWMM, was applied to a semi-urbanized catchment whose upstream runoff from mountainous areas may contribute to the storm-water runoff in downstream urban parts. Our findings confirm an increase in the number of inundation points and reduction in sustainability indices of UDS due to climate change. The results present an increase in UDS reliability from 4% to 16% and improvements in other sustainability indicators using BMPs in upstream suburban areas compared to implementing them in urban areas.  相似文献   

Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped‐storage operation and climate change     

Ulrike Gabriele Kobler  Martin Schmid 《水文研究》2019,33(20):2676-2690

Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped‐storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one‐dimensional and a two‐dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21^st century was projected to shorten the ice‐covered period by ~2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by ~13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by ~13% for current climate and could further be reduced from ~45% to ~10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one‐dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two‐dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet.  相似文献   

2017年3月27日漾濞5.1级地震前后气枪震源观测走时数据的变化     

杨建文  何应文  张鹏映  叶泵  邓嘉美  赵家本 《中国地震》2019,35(4):676-684

以2017年3月27日漾濞5.1级地震为例，根据区域特性和信噪比要求，选取数据较为完整的6个台站记录的2017年1月1日～6月6日期间的宾川地震信号发射台气枪震源波形资料，采用互相关检测技术提取6个台站各自稳定震相的走时数据，并对漾濞5.1级地震前后走时数据的变化情况进行分析。结果表明，漾濞5.1级地震前后6个台站各自稳定震相存在较为明显的走时变化，且短期内走时变化具有较好的同步性，相关台站异常幅度大小和异常出现时间存在细小差异。地震发生前，6个台站走时低值异常过程明显，以YUL台最为显著。地震发生前后走时变化形态特征为双“V”型，漾濞5.1级地震发生在第1个“V”型末端。地震发生后，不同方位相关台站受地震的影响程度不同，走时波动大小存在差异。  相似文献   

乌加河地震台地电阻率干扰形态识别     

刘伟  柴宁娇  张国清  石伟  王树忠 《地震地磁观测与研究》2019,40(3):64-69

选取乌加河地震台2015-2018年地电阻率观测资料，分析数据异常变化，结合观测环境及实地调查，发现存在降雨、雷电、金属管线、农田灌溉、设备漏电等影响因素，对比分析并总结各类干扰曲线形态、变化幅度、影响时间、干扰频次等特征，以便正确认识并排除地电阻率干扰，为地震异常信息识别提供帮助。  相似文献   

河北广平地震台数字电扰动异常分析     

贾华  乔子云  贾立峰  张国苓  寇海川  张双凤  张小涛 《地震地磁观测与研究》2019,40(4):95-101

自2018年1月11日，河北广平地震台数字电扰动仪NS、EW测道每日北京时间18时至次日06时出现规律性高值变化。通过观测系统检测、测区环境调查、现场实验分析、周边台站观测对比、其他台干扰形态分析及震例总结等手段，并对各种可能的影响因素进行分析论证，综合分析认为，该变化为干扰的可能性较大，非地震前异常。  相似文献   

华北—东北地区震磁异常与日本强震对应关系     

孙澎涛  任俊峰  焦成丽  孙贵成  张玉林 《地震地磁观测与研究》2019,40(2):45-51

选取2009—2014年华北—东北地区发生的12次中等地震,对该区8个地磁台站记录的地磁Z分量日变幅进行小波分析及合成计算,与日本海沟同期发生的12次M≥6.5强震进行关联性分析,发现日本强震对中国华北—东北地区中等地震活动具有连带作用,表现在:(1)日本强震发生前后,华北或东北地区均有M 4—5地震出现,频次一般为1—3,间隔几天至5个月左右;(2) 2011年3月10日日本M 9.1地震后,华北、东北地区中等地震震级有所升高,其中东北地区由M 4升至M 5,距日本最近的中俄交界甚至出现M 6.1地震,华北地区唐山老震区出现1次M 4.8地震,震级接近5;(3)每次日本强震出现后几天至2个月内,8个地磁台地磁Z分量小波细节6阶合成曲线值均出现2—6个月高值异常,但幅度大小与强震震级无明显规律可循,而华北或东北地区中等地震一般在异常高值出现前后低值附近发生。  相似文献   

2000年以来青藏高原湖泊面积变化与气候要素的响应关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

闾利  张廷斌  易桂花  苗加庆  李景吉  别小娟  黄祥麟 《湖泊科学》2019,31(2):573-589

青藏高原星罗密布的湖泊对气候变化十分敏感，在自然界水循环和水平衡中发挥着重要作用.以MODIS MOD09A1和SRTM DEM为数据源，提取了2000-2016年青藏高原丰水期面积大于50 km²的湖泊边界，从内外流分区、湖泊主要补给来源和湖水矿化度三个方面对2000年以来湖泊面积变化进行分析，并结合青藏高原近36年气象数据，根据气象要素变化趋势分区，初步探讨青藏高原湖泊面积变化与气候要素的关系.结果表明：青藏高原面积大于50 km²的138个湖泊整体扩张趋势显著，总面积增加2340.67 km²，增长率为235.52 km²/a.其中，扩张型湖泊占67.39%，萎缩型湖泊占12.32%，稳定型湖泊占20.29%.内流湖扩张趋势显著，外流湖扩张趋势较明显；以冰雪融水为主要补给来源的湖泊整体扩张趋势明显，以地表径流和河流补给为主要补给源的湖泊也呈扩张趋势；盐湖和咸水湖以扩张为主，淡水湖的扩张、萎缩和稳定三种类型较均衡.在青藏高原气候暖湿化方向发展背景下，湖泊面积变化与气候要素具有显著的区域相关性.气温和降水变化趋势分区结果表明，气温增加、降水增加强趋势的高原Ⅰ区湖泊扩张程度（78.18%）依次大于气温降低、降水量呈增加趋势的Ⅴ区（66.67%），气温、降水量呈增加趋势的Ⅱ区（60.78%），气温呈降低、降水量呈增加强趋势的Ⅳ区（58.83%）和气温呈增加、降水量呈减少趋势的Ⅲ区（50.00%）.湖泊面积变化对气候变化响应研究表明，升温引起的冰雪融水补给对Ⅰ区、Ⅱ区和Ⅲ区湖泊面积扩张的影响显著，加之降水量的增加，湖泊扩张速率明显；Ⅳ区和Ⅴ区湖泊面积扩张主要受降水量增加影响显著.整体而言，气温主要影响以冰雪融水为主要补给来源的湖泊，降水量主要影响以降水和地表径流为主要补给来源的湖泊.  相似文献   

Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact     

Alison C. Rudd  Alison L. Kay  Steven C. Wells  Timothy Aldridge  Steven J. Cole  Elizabeth J. Kendon  Elizabeth J. Stewart 《水文研究》2020,34(1):139-149

Surface water flooding (SWF) is a recurrent hazard that affects lives and livelihoods. Climate change is projected to change the frequency of extreme rainfall events that can lead to SWF. Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are being used to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change; such assessments often focus on broad-scale fluvial flooding and the use of coarse resolution (>12 km) RCMs. However, high-resolution (<4 km) convection-permitting RCMs are now becoming available that allow impact assessments of more localised SWF to be made. At the same time, there has been an increasing demand for more robust and timely real-time forecast and alert information on SWF. In the UK, a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model framework has been developed. The system uses 1-km gridded surface runoff estimates from a hydrological model to simulate the SWF hazard. These are linked to detailed inundation model outputs through an Impact Library to assess impacts on property, people, transport, and infrastructure for four severity levels. Here, a set of high-resolution (1.5 km and 12 km) RCM data has been used as input to a grid-based hydrological model over southern Britain to simulate Current (1996–2009) and Future (~2100s; RCP8.5) surface runoff. Counts of threshold-exceedance for surface runoff and precipitation (at 1-, 3- and 6-hr durations) are analysed. Results show that the percentage increases in surface runoff extremes, are less than those of precipitation extremes. The higher-resolution RCM simulates the largest percentage increases, which occur in winter, and the winter exceedance counts are greater than summer exceedance counts. For property impacts, the largest percentage increases are also in winter; however, it is the 12-km RCM output that leads to the largest percentage increase in impacts. The added-value of high-resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling is from capturing the more intense convective storms in surface runoff estimates.  相似文献   

地表覆盖分类成果质量特征分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

商建伟 《测绘通报》2020,(9):159-161

自我国全面建成地理国情普查成果库之后，工作重心由全面普查变为重点监测。不论普查还是监测，准确地对地表覆盖进行分类一直是工作的重点和难点。在常态化监测阶段，把握地表覆盖分类成果的主要质量指标，归纳其诸如变化率、变化区域分布、变化类型，分析影响其成果质量的主要因素，对监测生产组织及质量控制具有非常重要的作用。  相似文献   

泛北极地区多年冻土活动层厚度演变   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

蔡红艳  韩冬锐  杨林生  陈慕琳  杨小唤 《遥感学报》2020,24(8):1045-1059

深入理解泛北极地区多年冻土活动层厚度的演变, 对于全球碳通量模拟、气候变化预测及泛北极地区冻融风险评估具有重要意义。目前开展的泛北极地区多年冻土活动层厚度模拟与分析, 大多无法全覆盖或空间分辨率过低(25 km或是更大), 在景观尺度(公里级)上的多年冻土活动层厚度变化特征仍有待解析, 尤其是关键基础设施区的活动层厚度变化仍不清楚。本研究基于站点监测数据、MOD11B3地表温度数据、MCD12C1土地覆盖数据, 采用Stefan模型, 在公里级空间分辨率上模拟泛北极地区2001年—2017年多年冻土活动层厚度, 并解析泛北极地区及主要油气区多年冻土活动层厚度时空变化格局及主要原因。研究发现: 2001年—2017年泛北极地区约有78.4%的冻土区域多年冻土活动层厚度呈现增长趋势, 尽管全区多年平均的增长速率为0.22 cm/a (p<0.05), 但具有较强的时空差异性。显著增长区主要集中在加拿大西北部的落基山脉及劳伦琴高原一带以及俄罗斯中西伯利亚高原中部地区, 增加速率主要在0.5—1 cm/a；而减少区主要分布在加拿大的哈得孙湾沿岸平原、拉布拉多高原一带, 俄罗斯的东西伯利亚山地北部、中西伯利亚高原的北部、贝加尔湖以东区域和泰拉尔半岛一带。泛北极地区主要油气区多年冻土活动层厚度也以增加为主, 80%以上的油气区呈现增加趋势, 增长速率在0.1—0.7 cm/a。泛北极地区多年冻土活动层厚度变化与气温变化在空间上具有较好的一致性；积雪厚度与活动层厚度关系复杂；不同植被类型的多年冻土活动层厚度有所差异(林地>草地>稀树草原>灌丛), 且多年冻土活动层厚度变化与植被转化方向一致。该成果将有助于深入理解北半球高纬度多年冻土区冻融格局, 尤其可为冻土区的油气设施冻融风险识别与防控提供参考。  相似文献